Air Pollution: India’s Silent, Structural Threat – Bigger than Any Trade Tariff

Panna Chandra Nath, PhD, Research Associate, Think Tank Department, Mobius Foundation, Connaught Place, New Delhi, India;
Sudheer Kumar Shukla, PhD, Head, Think Tank Department, Mobius Foundation, Connaught Place, New Delhi, India

Recently, in India, there were many debates about the impacts of US tariffs on Indian exports, with headlines warning of job losses in textile hubs like Tirupur and Coimbatore and a reduction in exports of gems and jewellery. Broadly impacting the bilateral relations due to the increase in tariffs up to 50% for goods worth billions of dollars. Behind this economic unease generated due to the friction of trades, there is a more permanent and even worse crisis unfolding every day in the country, the air pollution. The former is periodic and negotiable, whereas the latter is more chronic, generally exponential in nature,
and has already started having fatal impacts on public health, the economy and on social well-being across the country.

The limited scope of tariffs
The increase in tariffs is directly impacting some of the Indian industries that exports goods to different countries, more specifically to the US. The textile exports from Tirpur and Tamil Nadu have been impacted, along with thousand cases of job loss across different sectors due to the increase in tax on clothing products. Similarly, the export of denim clothing products shows a sharp decline as buyers across the globe started hesitating under the duties of the new 50% tariff2. Economists warned that this as a major shift and could cut nearly one tenth of a per cent of the country’s GDP, including a reduced rate of employment generation, a decline in the global positioning for jewellery and gems that primarily rely on the US markets, which has also been pointed out by the World Bank.

Under this scenario, even with the most serious projections, the cost impact of the US tariffs is yet at the single digit of the GDP of India, and the impacts can be reversed with diversification of the export markets, support packages by the government, and a gradual recovery over time. On the go, the government has already extended a helping hand to the exporters. In 2025, the government of India have approved a ₹450 billion (US$ 5.1 billion) support package to help the exporters of the country to cope up with the difficulties through trade guarantees and market development assistance. However, export of goods to the US markets still represents around 2–3% of India’s GDP, which shows that the hurdles produced due to the tariff may be painful, but are significantly not much functional.

This simplifies that, though trade tensions are difficult and escalating, India probably can manage the situation, but the air that we Indians are breathing today is composed of threats that are far more fatal, irreversible, and persistent than any tariff war that ever could happen.

The everlasting public health catastrophe: air pollution
Distancing from the hypothetical and diplomatic statements, let us consider the facts of air pollution with real impacts on the population and on the economy. Annually, around 20 lakhs premature deaths in India due to respiratory or cardiovascular diseases are directly associated with the polluted air that we breathe. According to a study published in Journal: The Lancet Planetary Health, air pollution above safe levels results in around 15 lakhs of deaths compared to the world, where air quality standards mostly remain within the permissible limits of the WHO.

To consider that even aggressive tariffs in certain export volumes may lead to a 50% decline in Indian exports, but it cannot fatally impact the lives of lakhs of Indians annually. Air quality remains dangerously poor across major Indian cities. The national capital of the country could not meet its own PM2.5 levels for around 210 days in a year, which is almost constant for the entire winter season at levels that are of intense concern for the breathers. The Air Quality Index (AQI) across the NCT and the associated areas recently remained ‘very poor’ for more than a week, estimated readings were above 300, and in some instances were at 500.

Air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide and ozone crossed the safe limits in the Kolkata city, which has compounded the risks of particulate matter pollution. Similar reports have also been observed from Hyderabad, with increasing respiratory issues associated with PM2.5.

The economic perspectives: air pollution vs tariff losses
The economic footprints of air pollution significantly stunt the associated costs of tariffs and trade unease. According to a comprehensive report from Greenpeace, estimated that air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels costs around ₹ 10.7 lakh crore (~US$ 150 billion) annually, which is around 5.4% of India’s GDP. The recent ₹450 billion export support package to reduce the impacts of tariffs is far less than the economic burden of the air pollution on the country’s GDP, even with harsh tariff impacts. A study by Clean Air Fund business outputs remain significantly affected due to polluted air, and estimates are around ₹ 7 lakh crore (US$ 95 billion), which is about 3% of India’s GDP. The figures may look marginal, but they structurally drain the economic potential of India, the health of the workforce, and human capital, an impact that is far more persistent than any cyclic or permanent tariff.

Air quality beyond lungs – impacts on society
Air pollution skyrockets hospital admissions, weakens the immunity of people, increases chronic diseases, and reduces life expectancy. Studies show that hospital admissions due to cardiovascular issues increase by 2% for every 10-unit increase in PM2.5 and PM10 levels, even if it is short-term. In northern India, PM2.5 levels regularly exceed the safe breathable limits by 8–10 times. The consequences of this are asthma, other respiratory issues, cardiovascular issues, and developmental disabilities, and the children are mostly affected.

No trade-related tariffs, but air pollution is sharp and responsible for several deaths all year long. Which remain unseen under the bunch of headlines and articles only.

The urgency to act immediately
It may attract most of the policymakers to dismiss the air pollution by terming it as ‘local’ or ‘seasonal’, as one may just dismiss the tariff, stating it as temporary economic unease. But, air pollution is neither and never one of these, and it is a national health emergency, which is increasing mortality and losing economic growth every year. However, there are some practical solutions to this. This includes energy transition to green energy solutions, strict emission reduction enforcement, more focused and visionary strategic actions, sustained investments, and, most importantly, a proper and strategic political will, which we have yet to raise fully.

Tariffs can be negotiated, diversified or mitigated with economic diplomacy soon, but air pollution cannot be outsourced or eliminated by diverse market access. It must be controlled at the source, which is within our cities, fields, factories, and power grids. As India debates its position in a shifting global trade system, our prominent focus must be on the air that our citizens breathe. Because clean air is not a luxury good, it is a basic condition of life, health, and human dignity.